The Rapid Change in The Future of Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicles (EVs) have experienced an uptick in popularity over the last several years, as technology has matured and costs have fallen, while clean transportation advocacy has fostered awareness, increased charging opportunities, and encouraged adoption of electric vehicles. While electric vehicles (EVs) are a relatively new technology, and automated vehicles are not easily accessible to the general public, the implications and potential synergies of these technologies working together are significant. Moreover, if charged using clean electricity, electric vehicles offer a viable path for reducing total greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonizing road transport. Increasing EVs range with higher-power public charging stations, and accommodating new potential business models for BEVs, such as transit-network companies or automated vehicles, are driving new charging-technology solutions.

More electric vehicles on the road will also demand better and larger charging infrastructure. Making EVs more appealing to the masses will also require that there be a wider variety of electric vehicle models. Going forward, this will make EVs more affordable and appealing to a wider public. EV driving ranges are already on par with those of ICE cars; prices are already at par, when subsidies in different markets are taken into account, as well as total ownership costs; and there is an increasing range of models available.

Achieving parity or even savings relative to ICE vehicles will play an important role in speeding adoption of electric vehicles, particularly as the model ranges and marketing priorities adjust in response to manufacturers emissions targets. In short, economies of scale, incremental improvements, and significant innovations in manufacturing technology will be critical to ensuring that the electric car industry keeps up with rapidly growing EV demand. Several studies predict an important role for electric vehicles going forward, reflected by significant investments in car development and commercialization, charging infrastructure, and continued technological improvements. Fast charging, connected cars, and smart charging are just some of the technologies that have already been speeding up adoption of electric vehicles around the world over the past several years.

Consumer demand will drive the rise of electric vehicles, but for now, consumers are holding off on replacing theirICE cars with equivalent electric vehicles. In countries where charging infrastructure cannot be invested, Deloitte expects that ICE car markets will continue to exist for a while. Alex Guberman from E For Electric shares similar views, projecting EVs will comprise 50% of the market by 2030. Other experts are not as bold in their forecasts for market share, but still envision a market in which most new vehicle sales are all-electric.

By 2025, J.P. Morgan estimates that this will grow close to 8.4 million vehicles, a market share of 7.7%. The growth in electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) is increasing, with the estimate that by 2025, EVs and HEVs will represent up to 30% of total car sales. About 10 states are seeing only about 5 of every 1,000 vehicle sales being EVs, but in California, around 8 out of every 100 new vehicle purchases are EVs.

Even if we somehow magically get 100% of new vehicle sales being electric starting in 2021, it will take until roughly 2042 for the U.S. to get 100% EVs on the road. While it is very possible that we would not hit 99 percent EVs in U.S. operations until 2050 at the earliest, shops located in the highest adoption markets, such as San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Portland, OR, and Seattle, may begin seeing their business drop off over the next five years or so. Outside of heavy adoption markets for EVs, like those on the west coast, service stations might not see any adverse impacts on their business as a result of EVs transition until 2030 or so.

For owners of oil change/fast-lube centers, your businesses main services ultimately will not be needed in an EV world. If PEVs increase in popularity, these combined gasoline/electric vehicles will expand demand for oil changes, tune-ups, smog checks, and other services needed by gasoline-powered vehicles.

Charging Infrastructure With several million light-duty EVs on the road, currently in the US, about one public charging station exists per ten Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) (although the majority of vehicles do have access to residential charging). Another avenue could be resiliency benefits of connecting car batteries with electric grids. After that, we could see completely compostable organic batteries, which would be not only the best ecological choice, but allow very quick charging times. Adopting such quantum charging will result in 200 times faster charging times than classic batteries, meaning at-home charging times would drop from 10 hours to around 3 minutes.

At high-speed charging stations, the charge time would drop from 30 minutes to just seconds. Gradual improvements in battery technology would ultimately enable the driving range of EVs to reach an acceptable level when compared with gas-burning cars. Sales of cars powered exclusively by batteries surged last year in the U.S., Europe, and China, whereas deliveries of fossil-fuel vehicles were stagnant.

Over the next five years, Stemple expects there to be a growing mix of EVs and hydrogen fuel-cell-powered vehicles, along with continued advances in materials technologies, such as lighter, stronger materials for structures, and cheaper, better alloys to improve power density in batteries. Further developments in reduced weight and efficiency will occur as lithium-sulfur batteries become commercially available in EVs, perhaps by the early 2030s. While the EV industry is reliant on new technologies for their advancement, Stempel is careful to point out that technology applications need to be done in a user-friendly way, in order for prospective customers to choose EVs for their transport needs.

According to Hank Courtright, at the Electric Power Research Institute, the successful adoption of electric vehicles will require new infrastructure to enable comfortable and secure charging. The spread of electric vehicles will increase air quality and help to slow global warming. The shift toward almost 100% electric vehicles in operation (VIO) is decades away in the United States (it will happen far sooner in Europe and China).